Update on North Korea

By Ryan Mauro

North Korea's involvement in supplying ballistic missile and WMD technology is done not solely to make common cause with adversaries of the West, but is critical to filling the wallets of the regime's leaders. North Korea is the closest thing to a mafia state we have today, with the government using the black market to sell illicit materials for fundraising and intelligence gathering. Given the importance of such shipments to the operation of North Korea's government, it is highly unlikely that the Stalinist regime will end them.

The insistence of shipping such materials, even after the Obama Administration decided to intercept them when possible, is also a key test of the Administration. Kim Jong-Il is a tough negotiator, and a wise businessman, and is testing the resolve of the United States. He knows the U.S. will not engage in a major military conflict with the DPRK, and so such shipments carry relatively little risk: A clash will allow him to rev up his hyper-nationalistic propaganda, win the attention of the West, and asset his power. At the same time, should the U.S. not board the ship, he will have confirmed his original suspicions that it is business as usual, and will reassure his customers that they need not look for other suppliers. The prestige from such a victory will fuel his already outrageous ego, filling him with the pride and glory every dictator craves.

I expect North Korea to continue its WMD shipments, regardless of how the U.S. decides to handle this latest vessel departure. Black market activity of all kind is in the blood of the North Korean regime, and so long as the regime exists in its present state, we can expect the cycle of confrontation followed by pleas for international aid packages to continue. [more...]