The Urgency of Iran

By Nicholas Guariglia

President Obama has consistently and deferentially referred to Iran as the "Islamic Republic" - perhaps subliminally signaling that we seek no regime change and recognize the political legitimacy of the ruling clerics. This is worrisome, especially given the news this week that Manhattan's District Attorney Robert Morgenthau indicted Le Fang Wei, a Chinese financier, for duping several American banks and peddling nuclear materials to the mullahs. Reportedly, Fang Wei set up four bogus import-export companies that worked with six Iranian shell firms, with the largest recipient believed to be a subsidiary of the Iranian defense ministry.

There were some 58 transactions in all, including shipments of banned materials from Beijing to Tehran between 2006 and 2008. Among them: 33,000 pounds of a specialized aluminum alloy (used in long-range missile production); 66,000 pounds of tungsten copper plate (used in missile guidance systems); and 53,900 pounds of maraging steel rods (an incredibly hard metal used in uranium enrichment to make the casings for nuclear bombs).

Herein lies the asymmetry to Iran's nuclear pursuits: if their military program is shut down, they will continue to secretly weaponize their "civilian" nuclear program; if that is shut down, they will acquire atomic materials through third parties - sometimes, as in this case, from within the borders of the Great Satan itself - and across the black-market; if those efforts are stifled, the mullahs will ascertain the bomb from their rogue allies in Pyongyang, or elsewhere.

There are many avenues the Khamenei-Ahmadinejad-Rafsanjani regime may travel, all of which must lead to a U.S.-led roadblock at the nuclear intersection. But there is no evidence that this will be the case. More than three years ago, Joe Biden, then in the Senate, told the Israelis they would eventually have to accept a nuclear-armed Iran. Today, Vice President Biden warns Israel not to take action against Iran's nuclear program. This is untenable. Mr. Obama must be wary of these insufficient Cohen-like rationalizations, and avoid falling prey to their deceptions. He must understand the urgency of the situation, for if he votes "present" on this issue as well, there will be repercussions to pay. [more...]