6-30-11 National Security Updates

By Ryan Mauro

The End of Chavez?

Hugo Chavez has not been seen in public since June 10, when he underwent surgery in Cuba. The Venezuelan government insists he was successfully treated for a pelvic abscess, but there are consistent rumors that the strongman has prostate cancer. The opposition is demanding answers, while the government says Chavez is ruling from Havana. [more...]

Turkey Turns on Assad

The Syrian government’s savagery has ruptured the friendship the Assad regime has enjoyed with Turkey since Prime Minister Erdogan came to power. There is now a refugee crisis on the border, and the Turkish military may be deployed to create a buffer zone to protect the Syrians that President Assad is trying to starve and abuse into submission. [more...]

Muslim Brotherhood Shadow Candidate Surges in Egypt

According to an unscientific online poll, a new Islamist candidate is gaining steam in Egypt’s presidential race named Mohammed Selim al-Awa. He presents himself as a democratic "reformist" with no political affiliation, but he has made several concerning statements and is suspected by some experts of being the favored candidate of the Muslim Brotherhood. [more...]

6-23-11 National Security Updates

By Ryan Mauro

The New Al-Qaeda Chief

Al-Qaeda has officially made its deputy-leader, Ayman al-Zawahiri, its chief. Zawahiri is a divisive but deadly figure, commonly believed to be more important to Al-Qaeda operations than even Osama Bin Laden. This makes him America’s number one target, and it will be a struggle for him to manage the group’s vast networks while protecting his own life. [more...]

Turkey Turns on Assad

The Syrian government’s savagery has ruptured the friendship the Assad regime has enjoyed with Turkey since Prime Minister Erdogan came to power. There is now a refugee crisis on the border, and the Turkish military may be deployed to create a buffer zone to protect the Syrians that President Assad is trying to starve and abuse into submission. [more...]

Was Iran Behind 9/11?

A lawsuit has been filed accusing Iran and Hezbollah of “direct support for, and sponsorship of, the most deadly act of terrorism in American history.” Drawing on the knowledge of two Iranian intelligence defectors, three 9/11 Commission staffers and various experts, and eight law firms are placing blame for the September 11 attacks on the Iranian regime. If successful, the lawsuit will put to rest the notion that a nuclear Iran can be lived with. [more...]

War Powers Showdown

By Joseph Klein

Things are heating up over Libya and I do not mean just NATO’s sustained aerial bombing campaign. President Obama is facing a challenge in Congress and in court over his failure to seek congressional authorization for U.S. military involvement in the Libyan war in accordance with the United States Constitution and the War Powers Resolution. And while the Obama administration seems to think that all it needs to do is to act within the authority granted by the United Nations Security Council, tempers are beginning to fray at the Security Council, too, as the war drags on. [more...]

6-17-11 National Security Updates

By Ryan Mauro

'Kick in the Gut' for Al-Qaeda Killers

On June 3, Al-Qaeda may have suffered its biggest blow since the killing of Osama Bin Laden when a drone strike targeted Ilyas Kashmiri, an elite commando and possible replacement for the terror chief. Pakistani officials are certain of his demise but U.S. officials are skeptical. If Kashmiri was killed, then Al-Qaeda has lost one of its most prized operatives, and the West can celebrate the loss of a terrorist whose skill earned him the nickname "the commando commander." And on June 11, the head of Al-Qaeda’s operations in East Africa was killed in Somalia, making him possibly the third senior commander to be killed in six weeks. [more...]

Syrian Military Splitting

At least 5,000 Syrians have fled to Turkey as the Assad regime is crushing Jisr al-Shughour after soldiers and police officers refused to fire on civilians. More and more stories are coming out of soldiers defecting and security personnel being executed for disobeying orders. These fissures in the military bring the threat to the Assad regime to a new height. [more...]

Zawahiri’s New Videotape Shows Leadership Crisis in Al-Qaeda

For al-Qaeda's number two, it's a question of trying to keep the organization together in the aftermath of bin Laden's death.

The video of Ayman al-Zawahiri released on June 8 is most noteworthy for what he did not do. Despite being the official second-in-command of al-Qaeda, he did not declare, or even hint, that he is now the group’s official head. This indicates that Zawahiri is fearful of creating a fissure by asserting his authority, aware that the rank-and-file is not united behind him. It also means that the top leadership has been unable to communicate to decide on a successor, allowing contradictory reports that Zawahiri, Saif al-Adel, or Hamza bin Laden have taken the helm to spread confusion. [more...]

Zawahiri’s New Videotape Shows Leadership Crisis in Al-Qaeda

By Ryan Mauro

For al-Qaeda's number two, it's a question of trying to keep the organization together in the aftermath of bin Laden's death.

The video of Ayman al-Zawahiri released on June 8 is most noteworthy for what he did not do. Despite being the official second-in-command of al-Qaeda, he did not declare, or even hint, that he is now the group’s official head. This indicates that Zawahiri is fearful of creating a fissure by asserting his authority, aware that the rank-and-file is not united behind him. It also means that the top leadership has been unable to communicate to decide on a successor, allowing contradictory reports that Zawahiri, Saif al-Adel, or Hamza bin Laden have taken the helm to spread confusion. [more...]

U.N. Still Stupefied on Syria

By Joseph Klein

The United Nations Security Council continues to sink lower and lower in an effort to find language acceptable to all members condemning the Syrian government’s ruthless massacre of its unarmed citizens. Meanwhile, under the leadership of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, whom Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has recently called a “reformer,” more than 1,000 civilians have been killed to date.

Rather than confront directly the evil of mass murder imposed by the Syrian regime, the latest draft resolution proposed by the United Kingdom “calls upon all sides to act with utmost restraint.” Moral equivalency between the acts of government forces and protesters was an attempt to win over Security Council members such as India who complained that there were “armed extremists among the protesters” and wanted the Council to condemn the demonstrators as well. [more...]

6-10-11 National Security Updates

By Ryan Mauro

 

Al-Qaeda Eyes Yemen

Crowds of protesters are celebrating in the streets of Sanaa following President Saleh’s departure to Saudi Arabia for medical treatment after three rockets struck his palace. Their cheers may be premature, as he has given no indication that he will give up his fight to stay in power. The momentum does seem to be on the side of the opposition, but serious concerns linger about what a post-Saleh Yemen will look like. [more...]

UN Nails Iran and Syria

The International Atomic Energy Agency is calling Iran and Syria out for their secret nuclear activities, specifically warning of Iranian work on nuclear warheads. The incriminating reports may pave the way for additional sanctions on the two rogue states that will, hopefully, delay Iran’s drive for a nuclear bomb. [more...]

Syria Descends

In Iran, Neda Soltan became the face of the Green Revolution after video of her bloody death hit the Internet. Now, in Syria, a 13-year old boy named Hamza al-Khateeb has become her equivalent after his tortured corpse was given to his family. The animal-like savagery of the Assad regime is making the Syrian people more determined to be victorious, even as Secretary Clinton complains of the international community’s dithering. [more...]

6-2-11 National Security Updates

By Ryan Mauro

Obama: Regime-Changing Neocon?

Like his predecessor, the president has embraced the concept of spreading democracy in the Middle East.

Everyone was so focused on the part of President Obama’s Middle East speech about a Palestinian state within the 1967 borders that his transformation into a democracy-spreading, regime-changing neocon was missed. He proclaimed the goal of American foreign policy in the Middle East is “to promote reform across the region, and to support transitions to democracy.” Those are more polite words for incremental regime changes of all the undemocratic governments. [more...]

The Second Egyptian Revolution?

Egypt’s top prosecutor has announced that former President Hosni Mubarak will be prosecuted, possibly in a military court, for ordering the killing of protesters and corruption. The ousted leader may face the death penalty. This will be a test of Egypt’s experiment with democracy, as there is a high potential for a show trial. The decision came as major protests are planned for Friday against the military leadership. They are being called the "Second Egyptian Revolution." [more...]

A Changing Al-Qaeda

It’s been almost a month since Osama Bin Laden was killed, and Al-Qaeda still has not officially named his successor. There are contradictory reports about whether his second-in-command, Ayman al-Zawahiri or a top operational commander, Saif al-Adel, has taken the helm. Whatever the case may be, Saif al-Adel’s influence will increase and his ties to Iran and criticism of his colleagues could lead to significant changes in Al-Qaeda’s strategy. [more...]

"Tsunami of September"

The Israeli Defense Minister is warning of the "tsunami of September" when the U.N. will vote on recognizing an independent Palestine. Spain will recognize a Palestinian state even before then. International pressure against Israel is ratcheting up, and at the same time, Fatah has buried the hatchet with Hamas and seeks to do the same with Palestinian Islamic Jihad. [more...]

Afghan Death Toll Rises; Media Interest Declines

By Joseph Klein

The war in Afghanistan gets little attention by the mainstream media these days. But the loss of American lives continues to mount. Just last week, seven U.S. troops were killed by a powerful bomb, which had exploded in a field where they were patrolling on foot. At least twenty-eight Americans have been killed in May 2011 alone, according to the Associated Press. [more...]